Cannes 2025 Palme d'Or Predictions: Joachim Trier's 'Sentimental Value' Leads the Pack

With the final weekend of the 78th Cannes Film Festival in sight, it’s time to project who gets the biggest launching pad for the upcoming Oscar season by walking away with the coveted Palme d’Or.

Based on critical reception, audience ovations, and speaking with several sources on the ground and close to the jury members, a handful of films have clearly separated themselves from the pack — none more so than “Sentimental Value,” Joachim Trier’s incisive father-daughter drama that’s become the buzziest title on the Croisette.

Distributed by Neon, which is aiming for an unprecedented sixth consecutive Palme win — after “Parasite,” “Titane,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Anora” — “Sentimental Value” received the most enthusiastic standing ovation of the festival. Trier, a Cannes veteran whose “The Worst Person in the World” nabbed Best Actress in 2021, seems poised for a coronation.

However, could it be that easy?

Let’s break it all down of the major contenders and predictions for the top awards based on jury dynamics, critic scores and on-the-ground buzz.

Palme d’Or

Prediction: “Sentimental Value” (Joachim Trier)

Remember, this is a game of chess. Typically, the jury doesn’t hand out more than one major prize to a movie, so we’re trying to figure out what can win a certain category, if it’s not in contention in another.

Trier’s emotional drama about a woman reconnecting with her estranged father has moved audiences and critics. The jury, led by Juliette Binoche, includes emotional storytellers who might warm to this type of film such as Jeremy Strong and Halle Berry. Stars Elle Fanning, Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgård could find themselves in contention for acting prizes, and the film’s rare blend of intimate storytelling and themes could resonate with jury members like Payal Kapadia and Leïla Slimani.

Runners-up:

• “Sound of Falling” (Mascha Schilinski) – A multigenerational German saga that has stuck with viewers long after its early screening. Mubi’s acquisition and strong reviews suggest it’s a real contender. (predicted Grand Prix)
• “Nouvelle Vague” (Richard Linklater) – Vintage Linklater in the best way. Critics have lauded its warm, cerebral portrait of artistic reinvention. Zoey Deutch’s performance and the tight script keep it in contention. (predicted Jury Prize)
• “It Was Just an Accident” (Jafar Panahi) – Panahi’s first film since his release from prison is politically charged, subtle and devastating. It might sneak to the top with Neon behind it and global relevance baked in.
• “Die, My Love” (Lynne Ramsay) – A $24 million Mubi pickup and emotional knockout, with Jennifer Lawrence earning career-best reviews. Even with divisive reviews, don’t count this one out.